Mumbai: India will outpace China to become the world’s largest economy by 2050, boasting a GDP of $86 trillion, forecasts a report by global property firm Knight Frank & Citi Private Bank. Leading the elephant’s charge will be Mumbai and New Delhi, which will feature in the list of top 20 cities globally within the next 10 years.
Going only by GDP growth, the wealth report says Mumbai and New Delhi will rank among the top 20 global cities in the next decade. While Mumbai is ranked 16th, New Delhi is ranked 20th in the list of cities surveyed in terms of economic activity, political power, quality of life, and knowledge and influence.
The report also named Surat and Nagpur among the fast-growing cities to watch out for by 2050.
“China will overtake the US to become the world’s largest economy by 2020, which in turn will be overtaken by India in 2050,” said the report.
The Indian economy will reach a size of $85.97 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity by 2050 while the Chinese GDP would be $80.02 trillion during the same period,’’ said the report. The US — currently the world’s largest economy — is expected to have a GDP of $39.07 trillion by 2050.
In terms of growth from 2010-2050, India would be the second fastest with its economy growing at the rate of 8% annually during the period.
“We believe the cities to watch in 2050 are the 400 emerging market middleweights — fast growing cities with populations between 200,000 and 10 million. This dynamic group includes many cities that are not household names today: Linyi, Kelamayi and Guiyang in China; Surat and Nagpur in India; Concepcion and Belem in Latin America,” it said.
Citing calculations by London School of Economics professor Danny Quah, the report predicts that the world’s economic centre of gravity, a theoretical measure of the focal point of global economic activity based on GDP, will shift eastwards to lie somewhere between China and India. Professor Quah calculated that in 1980, it was in the middle of the Atlantic.
The growing importance of Asia is also reflected in the rise of the super-wealthy population in the region. For the first time, the number of Asians with at least $100 million in disposable assets has overtaken those in North America. “There are now 18,000 centa-millionaires in the region covering South-East Asia, China and Japan. This is more than North America, which has 17,000, and Western Europe with 14,000,” the report says.
South-East Asian decamillionaires (those with $10 million or more in assets) already outnumber those in Europe, and and are also expected to overtake those in the US in the coming decade.
• The report, by Knight Frank and Citi Pvt Bank, forecasts that by 2050, India’s GDP at $85.97 trillion will overtake China’s $80.02 trillion. The US will be third with $39.07 trillion
• From 2010-50, India will grow the fastest, at 8% p.a.
• Mumbai will be ranked 16th and New Delhi 20th among global super-cities within the next 10 years
• Nagpur and Surat will be the other cities to watch out for by 2050